Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x7741…23e6 sports 85 markets active 14h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,409 (-12%) realized −$3,511 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%39W / 44L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$472
14 days−$836
30 days−$3,659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$2,102
sports 31% −$1,102
other 17% −$597
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 32% -20.8%
≤30d 72 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 32% -27.4%
≤90d 83 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 31% -21.8%
all 83 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 31% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 31% -21.8%
10% -26.2% 23% -29.3%
15% -33.3% 13% -36.1%
20% -39.9% 10% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$128 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$518
Realized−$3,511
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses39 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage55d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $192 $266 +$74 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $224 $252 +$28 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $799 +$70 +9%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $506 −$278 -55%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $98 −$4 -4%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $101 −$1 -0%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $101 +$23 +23%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $98 −$47 -47%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $94 −$1 -1%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $101 +$53 +53%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $101 +$36 +35%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $101 −$18 -18%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $101 +$66 +65%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $101 +$9 +9%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $101 −$3 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $101 −$3 -3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $142 −$94 -66%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $66 +$26 +40%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $47 +$20 +41%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $51 −$2 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $248 −$16 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $88 −$34 -39%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $74 +$15 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $102 −$32 -31%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $113 −$111 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $110 +$2 +2%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $70 −$69 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $63 +$7 +11%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $54 +$9 +17%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $49 +$5 +10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $45 +$4 +9%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $3 −$1 -28%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $38 +$8 +22%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $304 −$300 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $202 +$84 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $124 +$134 +108%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $111 +$14 +12%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $103 +$8 +7%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $65 −$64 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $163 −$139 -86%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $101 +$55 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $97 +$54 +56%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Filippo Romano Jun 04 $54 +$43 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $105 −$1 -1%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $44 +$11 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $224 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $183 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 18h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 65¢ $202 40h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $799 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 24¢ $66 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 28¢ $162 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 57¢ $506 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $266 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 75¢ $201 2d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 41¢ $102 3d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 65¢ $94 3d
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker SELL Nicolas Kicker 67¢ $101 3d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer SELL Tristan Boyer 80¢ $124 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Jesper de Jong 40¢ $52 3d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 80¢ $92 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko SELL Alexander Shevchenko 93¢ $155 3d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic SELL Daniil Medvedev 93¢ $136 3d
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 66¢ $83 3d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 97¢ $167 3d
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano SELL Oliver Tarvet 73¢ $110 3d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu SELL Yunchaokete Bu 61¢ $0 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Bublik 56¢ $0 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 74¢ $98 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Bublik 56¢ $98 4d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ $98 4d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu SELL Yunchaokete Bu 58¢ $99 4d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $94 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.71 · official $517.71 (match) · 250 history records