Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7743…43ec sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 642d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$138 (+0%) realized +$139 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%72W / 57L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$306
7 days−$291
14 days−$296
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 44% $0
politics 40% −$9
crypto 7% −$251
other 6% −$37
weather 2% +$32
sports 1% +$61
world 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +11.4% +0.7% 56% 38% -18.7%
≤30d 30 +1.3% -8.4% 43% 30% -12.6%
≤90d 42 +5.5% -4.6% 48% 33% -11.0%
all 129 +3.3% -6.5% 56% 34% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 34% -9.9%
10% -15.5% 30% -18.5%
15% -23.7% 29% -26.4%
20% -31.1% 26% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

642d coverage
Net worth$1,159
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses72 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage642d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 83¢ $1,149 $1,148 −$1 (-0%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $268 −$125 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $338 −$193 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $204 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $262 −$30 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$10 -16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$10 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 16 $12 +$11 +91%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Tucuman: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 11 $11 −$2 -22%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 11 $11 +$11 +97%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,900 −$5 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 09 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $710 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $140 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $798 −$2 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 30 $11 +$12 +109%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gonzalo Bueno vs Vitaliy Sachko May 25 $8 +$7 +86%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,507 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $1,509 −$1 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazzaville: Florent Bax vs Calvin Hemery May 11 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,505 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 05 $5 +$4 +84%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 05 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $1,503 +$2 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $3,010 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $1,505 $0 +0%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
BNP Paribas Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-03? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Fulham FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 09 $15 +$7 +47%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $42 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 42m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $44 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $62 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $99 50m
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $53 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $202 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $59 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $33 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $117 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,158.88 · official $1,158.88 (match) · 417 history records