Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7743…1bae sports 280 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,190 (-10%) realized −$2,101 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%147W / 130L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$271
14 days+$186
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$1,494
sports 39% −$982
other 18% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.7% +11.9% 50% 50% +25.9%
≤30d 46 -11.3% -19.7% 43% 43% -10.9%
≤90d 277 -4.5% -13.6% 53% 51% -20.1%
all 277 -4.5% -13.6% 53% 51% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 51% -20.1%
10% -21.9% 48% -27.7%
15% -29.4% 41% -34.7%
20% -36.3% 35% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$65 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$2,101
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses147 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions3
Markets (closed)277 / 280
History coverage81d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 50¢ 38¢ $60 $46 −$14 (-23%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Rune Eaters 61¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Grind Back 64¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $93 +$29 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$38 +134%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $60 +$108 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$19 -56%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $17 +$19 +109%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $71 +$52 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $83 −$16 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$49 +130%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $165 +$71 +43%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 6 Winner Jun 19 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$48 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $193 +$88 +46%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $173 −$171 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $71 −$70 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $46 −$39 -86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $91 +$55 +60%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 31 $56 −$55 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $386 +$122 +32%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $76 −$69 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 30 $41 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 30 $204 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 30 $104 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 30 $104 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 30 $104 −$8 -7%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winne May 25 $10 −$9 -91%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $20 +$10 +51%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $59 +$36 +62%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $61 −$31 -51%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner May 24 $15 +$18 +116%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 24 $15 +$10 +68%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 24 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $55 +$11 +20%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Real Zaragoza end in a draw? May 24 $141 +$17 +12%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $79 +$42 +54%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $30 −$13 -41%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$28 -94%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $16 −$7 -45%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $11 +$24 +223%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winne May 24 $30 −$17 -55%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winne May 24 $71 +$61 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 3m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 61¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 64¢ $37 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 15h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $168 19h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 35¢ $60 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $34 42h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $17 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $36 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $17 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 93¢ $123 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $71 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.26 · official $24.66 · 691 history records