Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7744…999e
sports · 72 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
+$694,711 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$144,723 · open +$33,022
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$177,881
Realized−$144,723
Unrealized+$33,022
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions6
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage99d
Avg bet$41,986
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 6 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$539
7 days−$539
14 days+$48,542
30 days+$51,771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 50¢ 65¢ $120,374 $157,348 +$36,974 (+31%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $22,832 $19,937 −$2,895 (-13%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $634 $305 −$329 (-52%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $1,017 $276 −$742 (-73%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 7¢ 66¢ $2 $15 +$14 (+850%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $495 $0 −$495 (-100%)
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? No 19¢ 0¢ $505 $0 −$505 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 02 $3,694 +$49,081 +1329%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $5,207 +$3,229 +62%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? May 22 $1 $0 +37%
LoL: French Flair vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group E Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO3) - EMEA Master Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st? Apr 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 12 $6,166 +$1,584 +26%
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? Apr 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? Apr 12 $230 −$230 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 12 $340 −$340 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Apr 12 $10,800 +$1,020 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $801 −$801 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Apr 12 $4,913 −$4,913 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Apr 12 $116 −$116 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Apr 12 $75,196 −$2,708 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $10,602 −$10,602 -100%
Flyers vs. Sharks Apr 12 $15,555 −$15,555 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Apr 12 $10,700 −$10,694 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $22,994 −$22,994 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $23,306 −$23,306 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $24,587 −$24,587 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats Apr 12 $8,995 −$8,995 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 12 $54,928 −$54,928 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Apr 12 $12,209 −$12,209 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Apr 12 $12,638 −$8,910 -70%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Apr 12 $7,515 −$7,515 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 12 $13,518 −$13,518 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 12 $7,321 −$7,321 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H Apr 12 $27,162 −$23,568 -87%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $20,915 −$20,915 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Apr 12 $3,233 −$3,233 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Apr 12 $53,701 −$53,701 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Apr 12 $18,400 −$18,400 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 12 $99,356 −$74,228 -75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $155,259 −$73,835 -48%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $12,169 +$10,414 +86%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 01 $137,106 +$37,103 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 01 $17,931 +$6,606 +37%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $784,345 +$40,749 +5%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $40,073 +$17,303 +43%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $21,500 +$14,044 +65%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 25 $18,600 +$11,400 +61%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5) Mar 23 $50,073 +$31,674 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$160,466
sports 28% −$81,117
other 26% +$28,868
politics 4% +$101,553
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $338 9d
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 9d
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 10d
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $2,603 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $817 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $30 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1,620 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $810 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $5 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1,620 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $810 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $8 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $111 19d
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $65 64d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LNG Esports 46¢ $20,915 64d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $20,649 67d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,934 67d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $20,814 68d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,329 68d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $20,728 68d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $163 68d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $334 70d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $5 70d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $2,583 74d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $24,537 74d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $610,709 74d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $15,750 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $9,512 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 +245.5% +212.6% 60% 60% +486.6%
≤90d 53 -27.5% -34.4% 28% 23% -21.9%
all 72 -12.4% -20.8% 39% 29% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 29% -13.9%
10% -28.3% 28% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -35.3% 25% -29.7%
20% -41.6% 21% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177,880.99 · official $177,880.87 (match) · 3500 history records