Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x774a…c96a crypto 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (377 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$569 (+6%) realized +$578 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%176W / 110L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day377.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$373
other 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (377 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 52% -5.7%
≤30d 286 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 52% -5.7%
≤90d 286 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 52% -5.7%
all 286 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 52% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover377.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 52% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 41% -14.7%
15% -28.6% 30% -22.9%
20% -35.6% 21% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$578
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses176 / 110
Open positions1
Markets (closed)286 / 288
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day377.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 52¢ 30¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $79 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$39 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$16 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$11 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$25 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$60 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$40 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $96 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $215 +$185 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$14 -96%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $52 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $27 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $12 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.95 · official $44.35 · 954 history records