Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7751…4dab other 910 markets active 6h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$161 (-5%) realized −$148 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%314W / 574L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$44
14 days+$33
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$97
sports 18% +$66
politics 4% −$17
world 4% −$65
tech 3% −$56
crypto 3% −$40
culture 1% −$34
weather 1% −$34
finance 1% −$17
economics 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +50.7% +36.3% 50% 50% +82.9%
≤30d 29 -10.2% -18.8% 31% 24% -11.8%
≤90d 165 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 37% -12.8%
all 888 -3.5% -12.7% 35% 34% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 34% -12.4%
10% -21.1% 32% -20.7%
15% -28.7% 29% -28.4%
20% -35.7% 26% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses314 / 574
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)888 / 910
History coverage227d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 888 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? Yes 9¢ 31¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+244%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+39%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
California voter ID referendum passes? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes 38¢ 4¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 453 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $10 +$53 +519%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +25%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 09 $9 −$1 -8%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? Jun 06 $1 $0 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 27 $5 +$9 +173%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$7 +216%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 22 $3 $0 -10%
Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 22 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? May 22 $7 −$4 -58%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? May 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $7 +$3 +34%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 +$2 +55%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $4 +$6 +134%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $7 +$3 +34%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 +$8 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on May 11? May 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $6 +$3 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 SELL 96¢ $63 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 BUY 47¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 7d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 8d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 44¢ $4 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 13d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 15d
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.53 · official $66.53 (match) · 1781 history records