Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7752…06b1 crypto 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%248W / 8L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$55
other 20% −$8
economics 8% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 56 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 256 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses248 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)256 / 258
History coverage243d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $97 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? Jun 19 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 16? Jun 16 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15? Jun 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 9? Jun 09 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $192 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $191 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $181 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 May 18-24? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 May 18-24? May 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 May 18-24? May 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 18-24? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 22 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? May 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 8? May 08 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 29? May 02 $190 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $189 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19? Apr 20 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 15 $188 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $187 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 05 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? Apr 01 $187 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 30? Mar 31 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 28? Mar 28 $186 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $186 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $194 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $194 3d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $194 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $17 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $77 5d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $89 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $193 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $191 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $192 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $192 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $191 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $68 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $123 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $181 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $181 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $181 24d
Will Solana dip to $50 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $40 27d
Will Solana reach $120 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $68 27d
Will Solana reach $130 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $54 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $19 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $180 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $180 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $180 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $180 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $180 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $180 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.74 · official $193.93 (match) · 566 history records