Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7754…9b26 crypto 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-9%) realized −$98 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%107W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$63
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$43
crypto 23% −$9
other 6% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -19.0% -26.7% 47% 47% -21.1%
≤30d 60 -20.4% -28.0% 45% 45% -22.5%
≤90d 216 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 47% -17.9%
all 216 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 47% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 47% -17.9%
10% -26.6% 44% -25.7%
15% -33.7% 41% -32.9%
20% -40.2% 31% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses107 / 109
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)216 / 218
History coverage43d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$11 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 +$5 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $18 −$14 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$18 -67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +195%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -88%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$13 -66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $35 −$7 -21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$6 +63%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $9 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $5 52m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 63¢ $5 5h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $28 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $8 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 21¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $26 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 22¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $15 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $14 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.61 · official $7.61 (match) · 439 history records