Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x7756…c666 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$26
politics 16% −$6
economics 5% −$2
sports 5% −$20
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.2% 5% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 108 -2.6% -11.8% 8% 7% -9.7%
all 116 -2.4% -11.7% 8% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 7% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 7% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage96d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $659 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $300 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $103 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $814 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $525 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $266 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,304 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $263 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $547 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $523 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $8 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $95 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 18d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.77 · official $250.77 (match) · 369 history records