Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7757…d317 crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,020 (-3%) realized −$1,013 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%119W / 80L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$3,328
14 days−$2,033
30 days−$1,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$97
other 10% −$377
sports 9% −$1,096
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -16.5% -24.5% 56% 42% -27.8%
≤30d 199 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 42% -14.5%
≤90d 199 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 42% -14.5%
all 199 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 42% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 42% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 32% -22.6%
15% -33.8% 24% -30.1%
20% -40.2% 22% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$94 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$1,013
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses119 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage28d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $151 +$8 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $684 +$182 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$114 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$23 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $282 +$27 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$19 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $131 +$13 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $401 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $305 +$91 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $303 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $213 +$56 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $172 +$41 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $116 +$84 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $215 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $203 +$41 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $861 −$855 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $376 −$376 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $162 +$38 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $162 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $151 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $181 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $61 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $282 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $70 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $81 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $17 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $151 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $144 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $131 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $401 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $305 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $303 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.42 · official $993.42 (match) · 768 history records