Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7757…120c other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$629 (+1%) realized +$629 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate78%101W / 29L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$888
14 days−$341
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$3,746
sports 18% −$3,529
world 1% +$48
crypto 0% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.2% -4.0% 83% 50% -11.9%
≤30d 34 +8.4% -1.9% 82% 50% -9.2%
≤90d 99 +1.7% -8.0% 78% 46% -9.0%
all 130 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 47% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 47% -9.0%
10% -18.1% 22% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 15% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$584) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$282 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$629
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses101 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage168d
Avg bet$549
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $639 +$22 +3%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 21 $619 +$19 +3%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,171 +$30 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $584 −$2 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $905 −$535 -59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,614 −$481 -30%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,307 +$315 +24%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,206 +$103 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $958 +$247 +26%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 19 $891 +$68 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $748 +$142 +19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $576 +$167 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $3,268 −$3,248 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,612 +$387 +15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,600 +$285 +11%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,436 +$268 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 +$165 +81%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,266 +$242 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,114 +$371 +18%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $203 +$131 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,765 +$220 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,732 +$39 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,610 +$119 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,573 +$38 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $493 +$288 +58%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,598 +$58 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,112 +$105 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $151 +$97 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,125 +$66 +6%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $81 +$89 +109%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 03 $221 +$79 +36%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,059 +$563 +53%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $350 +$105 +30%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $397 −$397 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $385 +$65 +17%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $242 +$100 +41%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $201 +$99 +49%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $399 +$64 +16%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $403 +$110 +27%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $345 +$46 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $57 −$44 -77%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $74 −$73 -99%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $400 +$73 +18%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $201 +$76 +38%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $396 +$68 +17%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $399 +$44 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $701 +$35 +5%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $297 +$275 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $210 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $290 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $138 1h
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY No 97¢ $226 5h
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY No 97¢ $26 5h
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY No 97¢ $108 5h
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY No 97¢ $109 5h
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY No 96¢ $150 5h
Curaçao leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $617 5h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $583 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 94¢ $582 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $250 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $17 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $316 8h
Curaçao leading at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $584 8h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $330 8h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $14 8h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $244 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $352 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $905 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 59¢ $1,133 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $725 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $244 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $49 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $1 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $24 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $571 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $1,623 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $1,307 15h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $212 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 492 history records