Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x775c…217f sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+23%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$54
other 43% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% -7.7%
≤30d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% -7.7%
≤90d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% -7.7%
all 4 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 50% -7.7%
10% -30.3% 50% -16.5%
15% -37.0% 50% -24.6%
20% -43.2% 50% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$50 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage3d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 +$59 +51%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$46 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $127 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $49 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 69¢ $49 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $41 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $26 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $97 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records