Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x775c…db44 crypto 503 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$226 (+0%) realized +$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate60%303W / 200L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$227
7 days−$227
14 days−$227
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -18.7% -26.5% 32% 14% -17.2%
≤30d 71 -18.7% -26.5% 32% 14% -17.2%
≤90d 71 -18.7% -26.5% 32% 14% -17.2%
all 503 -1.6% -11.0% 60% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 9% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 4% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses303 / 200
Open positions0
Markets (closed)503 / 503
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 503 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$62 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $90 −$1 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $90 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $70 +$18 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$24 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$24 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $100 −$29 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $100 −$17 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$24 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$24 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $150 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $70 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$2 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records