Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x775d…bdeb sports 281 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$555 (+6%) realized +$983 · open −$428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%102W / 174L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days+$388
14 days+$19
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$104
crypto 6% +$34
other 1% −$56
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 35% +5.8%
≤30d 245 -18.3% -26.1% 32% 30% -8.2%
≤90d 276 -2.3% -11.6% 37% 33% -4.4%
all 276 -2.3% -11.6% 37% 33% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 33% -4.4%
10% -20.1% 30% -13.5%
15% -27.8% 26% -21.9%
20% -34.9% 23% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$21 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$983
Unrealized−$428
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses102 / 174
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions5
Markets (closed)276 / 281
History coverage37d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 62¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$14 +280%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $221 +$11 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $201 +$141 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$25 +25%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $74 +$33 +44%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $58 +$86 +149%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$3 -16%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$50 -76%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $124 +$77 +62%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $33 +$5 +16%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $32 +$1 +3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$81 +121%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $52 +$96 +183%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$32 -88%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$43 +137%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $109 −$107 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $281 +$361 +129%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$67 +183%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$25 +185%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$79 +395%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $19 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $89 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $2 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $1 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $35 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $5 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $1 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $6 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $3 23m
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $200 43m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $33 1h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL DRX Academy 100¢ $232 1h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY DRX Academy 95¢ $221 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $215 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $121 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $127 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $16 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 22¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.97 (match) · 839 history records