Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7761…f504
sports · 1419 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$37 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$87 · open −$59
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$562
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses655 / 580
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions186
Markets (closed)1235 / 1419
History coverage68d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 186 History 1235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$34
14 days+$32
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $91 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 4¢ 98¢ $2 $43 +$41 (+2340%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $14 $26 +$12 (+90%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $36 $22 −$14 (-38%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 55¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 25¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+316%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 33¢ 63¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+89%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? No 33¢ 34¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 39¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+200%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 36¢ 18¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-49%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 44¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 36¢ 80¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+122%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 64¢ 65¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 44¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 39¢ 36¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 42¢ 79¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+88%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 34¢ 19¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $2 +$4 +223%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +119%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 $0 +26%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +29%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +124%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$1 +38%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $2 +$3 +180%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $4 −$2 -45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +46%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $107 +$114 +106%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +83%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $24 +$21 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% +$27
politics 24% +$39
other 21% −$32
world 7% −$24
tech 1% +$21
crypto 1% −$43
weather 1% +$1
finance 1% +$37
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 79¢ $2 6m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $98 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 80¢ $2 1h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Lucia Bronzetti 31¢ $2 2h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Lucia Bronzetti 31¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $3 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $97 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 89¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $2 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 14¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $2 5h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $3 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 5h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $2 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 52¢ $2 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 76¢ $2 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 6h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $2 7h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 51¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 44% -5.7%
≤30d 422 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 42% -2.0%
≤90d 1235 -3.6% -12.7% 53% 40% -8.9%
all 1235 -3.6% -12.7% 53% 40% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 40% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 35% -17.6%
15% -28.7% 30% -25.5%
20% -35.7% 25% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.26 · official $562.27 (match) · 3500 history records