Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7762…8fb8 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1 (+7%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
crypto 36% +$1
sports 14% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.1% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
≤30d 1 +19.1% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
≤90d 1 +19.1% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
all 1 +19.1% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 100% +7.7%
10% -2.6% 0% -2.6%
15% -12.0% 0% -12.0%
20% -20.6% 0% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.66 · official $9.66 (match) · 9 history records