Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7764…d19e crypto 284 markets active 3d ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%180W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.8% +11.1% 73% 73% +7.0%
≤30d 76 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 49% -19.4%
≤90d 284 -3.0% -12.2% 63% 57% -13.3%
all 284 -3.0% -12.2% 63% 57% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 57% -13.3%
10% -20.6% 39% -21.6%
15% -28.3% 27% -29.2%
20% -35.3% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses180 / 104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 284
History coverage56d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$9 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $8 +$5 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $23 +$7 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 861 history records