Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7765…c1b5 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$5
politics 33% −$5
sports 15% −$4
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.9% -19.4% 50% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 5 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 0% -10.0%
all 101 -6.6% -15.5% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 93
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage380d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $63 $0 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $1 $0 -12%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $60 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $131 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $130 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $62 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $132 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 05 $1 $0 -30%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $1 $0 -25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $67 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $66 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 05 $1 −$1 -80%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 30 $65 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 27 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $57 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 23d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 24d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 27d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 27d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 29d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 115d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 123d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 130d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 133d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 133d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 135d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 137d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 137d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 141d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 141d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $60 141d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $60 146d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.41 · official $59.41 (match) · 407 history records