Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x7765…ccb8 world 7 markets active 20h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$27,875 (+33%) realized +$48,650 · open −$20,775
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$12,131per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$44
14 days+$47,976
30 days+$47,976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$21,199
politics 20% +$47,217
world 4% +$1,442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +83.9% +66.4% 67% 67% +232.6%
≤90d 5 +58.7% +43.6% 80% 80% +221.0%
all 5 +58.7% +43.6% 80% 80% +221.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.6% 80% +221.0%
10% ← realistic here +29.8% 60% +190.3%
15% +17.3% 40% +162.2%
20% +5.8% 20% +136.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +255% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +255% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
57.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,070 vs −$44 · ×273.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1093.66 per $1 lost it wins $1093.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$43,497
Realized+$48,650
Unrealized−$20,775
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage96d
Avg bet$12,131
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $62,592 $41,437 −$21,155 (-34%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $1,680 $2,060 +$380 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 13 $2,409 +$1,183 +49%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $15,473 +$46,837 +303%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 18 $1,005 +$258 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3,579 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $1,319 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $2 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $2 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $10 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $2,260 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $160 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31,971 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11,191 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8,707 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8,626 9d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 42¢ $1,719 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $62,310 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $352 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $451 26d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $464 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 63d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1,263 63d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 68d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 68d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 68d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $80 68d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 68d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,496.53 · official $43,554.56 (match) · 435 history records