Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7768…859e other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+10%) realized +$37 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$30
crypto 8% −$20
sports 7% +$69
economics 5% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +43.4% +29.7% 58% 58% -2.1%
≤30d 12 +43.4% +29.7% 58% 58% -2.1%
≤90d 12 +43.4% +29.7% 58% 58% -2.1%
all 19 +25.7% +13.7% 58% 53% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 53% -2.3%
10% +2.8% 42% -11.7%
15% -7.1% 32% -20.2%
20% -16.2% 26% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage153d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$39 +452%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$17 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 +$18 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$31 +292%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 27? Jan 27 $1 $0 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $2 $0 +21%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jan 26 $2 $0 +22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -85%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 39m
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $42 40m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 27? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 141d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 27? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 141d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 141d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 141d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 69¢ $2 142d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 142d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 142d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 142d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 99¢ $6 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.76 · official $85.76 (match) · 47 history records