Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x776d…8ec2 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-14%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$6
other 42% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.7% -31.9% 44% 11% -27.1%
≤30d 9 -24.7% -31.9% 44% 11% -27.1%
≤90d 9 -24.7% -31.9% 44% 11% -27.1%
all 9 -24.7% -31.9% 44% 11% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 11% -27.1%
10% -38.4% 11% -34.0%
15% -44.4% 11% -40.4%
20% -49.8% 11% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 83¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +144%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 12m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $12 44m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) SELL Belgium 100¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Belgium 98¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $4 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 19h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $6 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 4d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.21 · official $13.21 (match) · 23 history records