Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x776f…a00c crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-10%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.1% -25.9% 57% 43% -18.8%
≤30d 7 -18.1% -25.9% 57% 43% -18.8%
≤90d 7 -18.1% -25.9% 57% 43% -18.8%
all 7 -18.1% -25.9% 57% 43% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 43% -18.8%
10% -33.0% 29% -26.5%
15% -39.5% 29% -33.6%
20% -45.4% 14% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$33 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$45 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$11 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $54 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records