Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7770…f99b sports 951 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-1%) realized −$189 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%530W / 416L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$301
crypto 27% −$214
other 11% −$116
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +39.9% +26.6% 50% 50% +45.2%
≤30d 20 +12.8% +2.1% 45% 45% -13.2%
≤90d 946 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 53% -9.6%
all 946 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 53% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 53% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 51% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 45% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 34% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses530 / 416
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions5
Markets (closed)946 / 951
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 946 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Sharks 65¢ 78¢ $47 $57 +$10 (+21%)
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Matias Soto 61¢ 62¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 59¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Olympic Dcheira vs. IR Tanger: IR Tanger O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will RS Berkane vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 +$14 +180%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend May 29 $49 −$9 -18%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: América de Cali (-1.5) May 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: CA Tigre (-2.5) May 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 May 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G May 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5) May 29 $18 +$40 +216%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 28 $47 −$47 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 3.5 May 28 $18 +$35 +188%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 May 28 $16 +$42 +262%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 1.5 May 28 $16 +$32 +197%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game May 28 $44 +$22 +51%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 28 $46 +$24 +52%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? May 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Trabzonspor vs. Bahcesehir Koleji May 28 $40 +$27 +67%
Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) May 28 $40 +$25 +62%
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants May 26 $9 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 26 $9 +$6 +61%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Gr May 26 $9 +$6 +67%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 26 $8 +$6 +73%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5 May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. May 26 $8 +$4 +52%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $6 +$5 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 May 26 $8 +$5 +62%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) May 26 $8 +$6 +73%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 25 $8 +$4 +55%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 25 $6 +$4 +62%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Italy May 25 $7 +$5 +74%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $6 +$5 +73%
Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 25 $6 +$4 +64%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 25 $6 +$5 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Vicenza: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Raul Brancaccio May 25 $6 +$4 +70%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 3.5 May 25 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $6 +$4 +59%
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $6 +$5 +76%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 25 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $6 +$5 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will RS Berkane vs. AS FAR end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 10m
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matias Soto 61¢ $48 1h
Olympic Dcheira vs. IR Tanger: IR Tanger O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $8 2h
Will RS Berkane vs. AS FAR end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 2h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 65¢ $47 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3h
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend SELL Fajing Sun 47¢ $40 27d
Spread: CA Tigre (-2.5) BUY CA Tigre 28¢ $17 27d
Spread: América de Cali (-1.5) BUY América de Cali 32¢ $17 27d
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5) SELL SE Palmeiras 100¢ $58 27d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas BUY Leviatán Esports 64¢ $44 27d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 27d
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $18 27d
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 31¢ $18 27d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $18 27d
Valorant: SaD Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY FlyQuest 59¢ $49 27d
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend BUY Fajing Sun 56¢ $49 27d
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $58 27d
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $48 27d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 59¢ $47 27d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game SELL Eternal Fire 99¢ $66 27d
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) SELL magic 100¢ $69 27d
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $16 28d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY No 35¢ $16 28d
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $16 28d
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 28d
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) BUY magic 65¢ $46 28d
Trabzonspor vs. Bahcesehir Koleji SELL Bahcesehir Koleji 100¢ $67 28d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY KOLESIE 63¢ $44 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.81 · official $109.81 (match) · 3500 history records