Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:12:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7771…009f sports 646 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,457 (-1%) realized −$1,286 · open −$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%295W / 349L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$2,554est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$266
14 days−$365
30 days−$3,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,290
world 5% −$191
other 3% −$341
finance 1% −$9
economics 1% −$171
politics 1% −$62
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.1% +28.6% 100% 100% +28.5%
≤30d 176 -9.6% -18.2% 45% 44% -17.2%
≤90d 644 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 39% -8.9%
all 644 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 39% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 39% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 37% -17.6%
15% -23.5% 32% -25.6%
20% -31.0% 25% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$140 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,286
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses295 / 349
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2,554
Open positions2
Markets (closed)644 / 646
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$260
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 31¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $354 +$146 +41%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $280 +$120 +43%
Will Scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $376 −$372 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $66 −$64 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $125 +$175 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $98 −$2 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $162 −$162 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $143 −$140 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $248 −$242 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $395 −$3 -1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Quinten Timber be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -92%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $217 +$228 +105%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,107 −$32 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $572 −$569 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $343 −$341 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $300 +$200 +67%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $413 +$182 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $370 +$130 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $420 +$429 +102%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $452 −$45 -10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $466 +$116 +25%
Will Weverton be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will Maxim De Cuyper be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $71 −$69 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $437 +$363 +83%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $19 −$2 -9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $604 +$183 +30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $187 −$186 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $384 +$487 +127%
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 12 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Diogo Dalot be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Juan Portilla be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will Pedro Neto be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $19 −$4 -20%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Will Davinson Sánchez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $110 −$108 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $203 +$197 +97%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $435 +$265 +61%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $492 +$129 +26%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $255 +$90 +35%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $119 −$118 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $248 +$152 +61%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $225 +$227 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 31¢ $95 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ $80 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 56¢ $56 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 74¢ $47 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 74¢ $242 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 74¢ $8 5h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 70¢ $280 25h
Will Scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $60 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $41 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $61 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ $50 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ $64 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ $14 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ $85 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 16¢ $66 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $66 11d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $96 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $125 11d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $98 11d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 36¢ $69 11d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 36¢ $3 11d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $90 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $143 12d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 1¢ $6 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 20¢ $41 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $207 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 48¢ $9 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 48¢ $51 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 48¢ $40 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.30 (match) · 3500 history records