Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7772…0e56 sports 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,794 (+7%) realized +$2,771 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%157W / 192L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$550est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,307
7 days+$2,400
14 days+$2,718
30 days+$1,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$758
other 8% +$713
crypto 6% +$527
politics 1% +$323
world 1% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +52.6% +38.1% 66% 66% +34.0%
≤30d 252 +1.7% -7.9% 48% 47% -6.3%
≤90d 349 +3.3% -6.6% 45% 44% -4.6%
all 349 +3.3% -6.6% 45% 44% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 44% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 43% -13.8%
15% -23.7% 42% -22.1%
20% -31.2% 40% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$107 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized+$2,771
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses157 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$550
Open positions5
Markets (closed)349 / 354
History coverage42d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $154 $135 −$19 (-12%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 37¢ 38¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $56 $95 +$39 (+71%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 31¢ 32¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $100 +$122 +122%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $100 +$122 +122%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$170 +170%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $100 +$108 +108%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $615 +$885 +144%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $623 −$623 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$133 +133%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$7 +122%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $100 +$138 +138%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 19 $95 +$148 +156%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $259 +$347 +134%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $559 +$441 +79%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$116 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $101 +$103 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$9 +152%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $114 +$236 +206%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$163 +163%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$163 +163%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$107 +105%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$156 +156%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $110 +$158 +144%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $95 +$111 +117%
Cucurella: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $558 −$558 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $100 +$138 +138%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$170 +170%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$18 +250%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$108 +108%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $178 +$238 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 +$117 +117%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $125 +$95 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 31¢ $13 38m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 48¢ $100 3h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $8 4h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $6 4h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $41 5h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $44 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $100 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $100 27h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $100 29h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $34 29h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $52 29h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $14 29h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $100 31h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $81 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $205 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $82 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $328 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $49 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $1 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $122 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $244 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $9 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $8 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $4 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $2 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $4 2d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $256 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $73 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.08 · official $445.08 (match) · 1510 history records