Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7772…8527 crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%25W / 9L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$10
economics 25% −$3
other 13% −$4
crypto 12% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 34 -2.4% -11.7% 74% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses25 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage256d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? May 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? May 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 27 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 13? Mar 27 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 25 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 25 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 25 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 9? Feb 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 29? Jan 29 $30 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? Jan 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 17? Jan 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 17 $3,480 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $3,466 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $3,489 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? Jan 11 $30 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 04 $4,508 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $4,531 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 15? Dec 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 6? Dec 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 29? Dec 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Nov 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 30? Nov 02 $50 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 30 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 13 $2,123 −$4 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 13 $2,035 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $1,574 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 35d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 37d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 89d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 89d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $70 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $66 119d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $23 131d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 131d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $35 136d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 29? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 146d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 147d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 157d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $3,476 159d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $3,480 159d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,463 159d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,466 159d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,485 159d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3,489 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $28 165d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 167d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $4,503 172d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $4,508 172d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $4,526 172d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,531 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.87 · official $112.87 (match) · 255 history records