Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
77 0x7776…be8d sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,739 (+8%) realized +$3,790 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$917per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$2,236
14 days+$2,662
30 days+$2,662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2,875
other 34% +$2,462
crypto 1% −$197
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 57% +0.4%
≤30d 27 +26.6% +14.6% 70% 63% +2.0%
≤90d 34 +16.4% +5.3% 65% 59% -3.5%
all 42 +13.6% +2.8% 64% 57% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 57% +2.2%
10% -7.0% 48% -7.6%
15% -16.0% 38% -16.5%
20% -24.2% 24% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$615) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$195 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$3,790
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage118d
Avg bet$917
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Over 30¢ 20¢ $98 $65 −$33 (-33%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $74 $55 −$18 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $161 −$85 -53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9,310 +$281 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $114 +$85 +75%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $201 +$148 +74%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $121 +$59 +49%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1,242 −$153 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $615 +$151 +24%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $364 +$105 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$23 +22%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $229 +$141 +62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$322 +107%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $262 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Austra Jun 16 $2,961 +$1,104 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $184 −$184 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3,976 +$205 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $54 +$37 +69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$69 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $146 +$54 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 +$305 +331%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: Both Teams to Score May 09 $670 +$330 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $1,455 −$1,455 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 12 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 11 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 01 $240 −$240 -100%
Como 1907 vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5 Mar 01 $474 −$474 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1,282 +$2,121 +165%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $725 +$6 +1%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 1.5 Feb 24 $7,636 +$1,132 +15%
Spread: Club Brugge KV (-1.5) Feb 24 $42 $0 +0%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Girona FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 24 $6,570 +$1,070 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 23 $84 +$16 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $100 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $76 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $76 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $294 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,600 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,000 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $975 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $910 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $481 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $509 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $643 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.90 · official $120.90 (match) · 217 history records