Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7777…d46d crypto 1134 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$649 (-7%) realized −$647 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%594W / 538L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$143
sports 28% −$141
world 21% −$254
other 16% −$104
politics 1% −$7
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -3.0% -12.2% 72% 64% -11.7%
≤30d 594 -5.4% -14.4% 64% 60% -12.6%
≤90d 1114 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 45% -18.2%
all 1132 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 45% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 45% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 35% -24.3%
15% -31.6% 27% -31.6%
20% -38.3% 21% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$647
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses594 / 538
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1132 / 1134
History coverage120d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 54¢ 66¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.54 · official $3.11 (match) · 3500 history records