Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x777a…001a crypto 1296 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,736 (-4%) realized −$3,736 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%595W / 701L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,800
weather 0% −$19
world 0% +$32
politics 0% −$29
other 0% −$8
tech 0% −$12
sports 0% −$9
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -16.7% -24.7% 39% 36% -44.9%
≤30d 212 -10.6% -19.1% 55% 52% -13.6%
≤90d 926 -27.3% -34.2% 39% 36% -25.3%
all 1296 -11.1% -19.6% 46% 39% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 39% -15.4%
10% -27.3% 34% -23.5%
15% -34.3% 29% -30.9%
20% -40.7% 23% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$35 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,736
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses595 / 701
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1296 / 1296
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1296 Trades
no open positions (243 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $97 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $125 −$61 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $187 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $117 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $113 −$103 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $314 −$44 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $125 −$121 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$25 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$17 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $115 −$111 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$44 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 31 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 29 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $1,019 −$302 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $161 −$156 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $336 +$67 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 29 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 29 $91 +$66 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 29 $290 +$97 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $145 −$139 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $74 +$42 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 29 $154 +$43 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 29 $367 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $179 +$131 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $120 −$116 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $118 +$37 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $103 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $198 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $205 −$197 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 29 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 29 $250 +$103 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $18 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $116 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $107 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $58 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $48 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $97 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $79 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3475 history records