Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x777f…d8b2 weather 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$86 (+12%) realized −$69 · open +$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +38.2% +25.0% 55% 45% +13.6%
≤30d 11 +38.2% +25.0% 55% 45% +13.6%
≤90d 11 +38.2% +25.0% 55% 45% +13.6%
all 11 +38.2% +25.0% 55% 45% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.0% 45% +13.6%
10% ← realistic here +13.0% 36% +2.8%
15% +2.1% 18% -7.2%
20% -7.9% 18% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$8 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.58 per $1 lost it wins $5.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Yes 25¢ 91¢ $61 $220 +$159 (+262%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? Yes 34¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+192%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $116 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 21 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $14 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 21 $211 +$74 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? Jun 21 $264 +$55 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 +$71 +527%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 20¢ $43 11m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 17¢ $8 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 16¢ $14 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 10¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 10¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 10¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 10¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 10¢ $4 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 10¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 12¢ $49 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 13¢ $116 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 20¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $285 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $211 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $278 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.78 · official $221.78 (match) · 100 history records