Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7783…d00b world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$8
other 17% $0
politics 15% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.7% -12.0% 14% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 18 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 11% -8.5%
≤90d 18 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 11% -8.5%
all 39 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage272d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 −$2 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $90 −$3 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $56 +$3 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $34 +$10 +30%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Dec 30 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $25 $0 -1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $60 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $60 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $25 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $60 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $60 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $48 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $40 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $9 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $8 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $8 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records