Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
77 0x7786…2fa4 crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$113 (+2%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$109
14 days+$126
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$4
other 25% +$106
tech 17% −$1
world 11% −$1
economics 8% −$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +74.5% +57.9% 38% 38% -7.3%
≤30d 11 +52.0% +37.5% 36% 36% -7.3%
≤90d 16 +35.8% +22.8% 44% 25% -7.3%
all 37 +15.5% +4.5% 46% 11% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 11% -8.1%
10% -5.5% 11% -16.9%
15% -14.6% 11% -24.9%
20% -23.0% 11% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.7 per $1 lost it wins $6.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage398d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 25? No 100¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 22 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Jun 22 $951 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 22 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$64 +90%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 18 $822 $0 +0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $10 +$43 +442%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$7 +65%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 11 $21 +$16 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 9-15? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 6? Jan 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA? Oct 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 31 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Sep 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $285 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 29 $530 −$1 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th May 29 $280 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 23 $276 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? May 20 $265 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31? May 20 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $267 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $923 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? SELL No 100¢ $912 1h
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? BUY No 100¢ $325 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $239 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? BUY No 100¢ $626 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $717 1h
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $957 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $750 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $785 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $72 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $11 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $12 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $15 34d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $21 34d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $14 69d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 86d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $20 86d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $15 86d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $9 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $14 103d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.87 · official $21.87 (match) · 94 history records