Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7787…8ac5 sports 453 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$247 (-2%) realized −$249 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate79%358W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$84
14 days−$140
30 days−$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$107
other 12% −$48
weather 8% −$101
crypto 3% −$12
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -10.6% -19.1% 78% 40% -13.5%
≤30d 399 -1.2% -10.6% 80% 51% -13.5%
≤90d 452 -0.7% -10.1% 79% 52% -11.8%
all 452 -0.7% -10.1% 79% 52% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 52% -11.8%
10% -18.7% 31% -20.2%
15% -26.6% 15% -27.9%
20% -33.8% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses358 / 94
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)452 / 453
History coverage56d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $47 +$8 +17%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $45 +$2 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $90 +$5 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $30 +$6 +20%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $87 +$2 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $83 +$4 +5%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $69 +$14 +20%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $64 +$5 +7%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $52 +$13 +24%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $50 +$2 +3%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $31 +$3 +8%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $42 +$5 +11%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $36 +$6 +17%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $29 +$2 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $32 +$4 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $28 +$1 +4%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $30 +$3 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 +$6 +12%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $48 +$4 +7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $44 +$4 +8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $40 +$5 +12%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Miyu Nishiwaki Jun 18 $11 +$2 +14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $66 −$3 -5%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $47 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 96¢ $45 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 86¢ $50 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $90 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Marcos Giron 70¢ $10 12h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 83¢ $30 13h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend BUY Gabriela Ruse 94¢ $50 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $87 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $3 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $80 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 83¢ $69 24h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 93¢ $24 27h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 93¢ $40 27h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 80¢ $52 29h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 92¢ $33 38h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 87¢ $10 43h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY SSG Landers 94¢ $20 43h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 97¢ $50 43h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 90¢ $42 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $31 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 85¢ $36 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 94¢ $29 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 89¢ $32 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 96¢ $28 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 92¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $52 2d
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 93¢ $48 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 92¢ $44 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 89¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.07 · official $12.07 (match) · 1012 history records