Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

77 0x7789…376e other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$265 (-8%) realized −$264 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate69%11W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$185per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$25

7 days+$14

14 days−$569

30 days−$297

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-16.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-12.0%	-20.4%	67%	67%	-6.8%
≤30d	16	-7.3%	-16.1%	69%	62%	-19.2%
≤90d	16	-7.3%	-16.1%	69%	62%	-19.2%
all	16	-7.3%	-16.1%	69%	62%	-19.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.1%	62%	-19.2%
10%	-24.2%	44%	-27.0%
15%	-31.5%	31%	-34.0%
20%	-38.2%	19%	-40.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$166 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$193

Realized−$264

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses11 / 5

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage14d

Avg bet$185

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$194	$193	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$161	+$25	+16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$65	+$21	+32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$65	+$18	+27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$86	+$45	+52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$261	−$85	-33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$26	+$10	+40%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$81	+$11	+14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$76	+$14	+19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$596	+$40	+7%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$31	+$12	+40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$81	−$80	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$802	−$649	-81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	+$64	+63%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$497	+$271	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	77¢	$195	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$161	12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$65	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	78¢	$65	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$86	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$86	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	69¢	$172	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$175	6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$36	7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$26	7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	72¢	$92	9d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	62¢	$81	9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$90	10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$76	11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	78¢	$148	11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	47¢	$91	11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$43	12d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$31	12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$81	12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	18¢	$153	12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$802	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	66¢	$488	13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	80¢	$166	13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$505	13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$497	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.84 · official $192.84 (match) · 33 history records