Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7789…ac9b world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$961 (+61%) realized +$964 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$776
politics 26% +$135
world 16% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +65.3% +49.5% 70% 60% +66.3%
≤30d 10 +65.3% +49.5% 70% 60% +66.3%
≤90d 10 +65.3% +49.5% 70% 60% +66.3%
all 10 +65.3% +49.5% 70% 60% +66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.5% 60% +66.3%
10% +35.2% 50% +50.4%
15% +22.2% 50% +35.9%
20% +10.2% 50% +22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$41 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.77 per $1 lost it wins $8.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$964
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $246 $275 +$28 (+11%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 69¢ 58¢ $207 $176 −$31 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 22 $130 −$113 -87%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $477 +$780 +163%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $164 +$135 +83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $26 +$2 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $63 +$92 +147%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $57 +$7 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $13 +$36 +280%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $13 +$20 +149%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $189 −$7 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $64 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $178 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $207 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $208 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $52 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $220 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $128 2d
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $124 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $86 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $59 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $21 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $195 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $132 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $37 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $34 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $44 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 100¢ $143 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 100¢ $144 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 100¢ $13 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $6 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $6 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.25 · official $450.25 (match) · 75 history records