Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7789…f823
politics · 33 markets active 612d ago
0.0score
+$10,588 +156%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,588 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,588
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses33 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 33
Avg bet$205
Trades / day318.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 0 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69,472
7 days−$69,472
14 days−$69,472
30 days−$69,472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Christie win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $15,124 $0 −$15,124 (-100%)
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $715 $0 −$715 (-100%)
Will Kanye West win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,320 $0 −$4,320 (-100%)
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $410 $0 −$410 (-100%)
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,053 $0 −$1,053 (-100%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $544 $0 −$544 (-100%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8,853 $0 −$8,853 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Christie win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $15,124 −$21,845 -144%
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election Jun 12 $715 +$2,669 +373%
Will Kanye West win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $4,320 −$11,946 -277%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $410 −$10,242 -2501%
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,053 −$4,678 -444%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $544 −$10,900 -2004%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $8,853 −$12,530 -142%
Will a Democrat win South Dakota Presidential Election? Oct 08 $14 −$1 -10%
Will a candidate from another party win New Hampshire Governor Electio Oct 08 $3 +$1 +41%
Will a candidate from another party win Indiana Governor Election? Oct 08 $5 +$5 +106%
Will a candidate from another party win Georgia Presidential Election? Oct 08 $8 +$8 +102%
Will a candidate from another party win Vermont US Senate Election? Oct 07 $0 $0 +390%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 03 $269 +$150 +56%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 01 $180 +$675 +375%
Will the Panthers win the NFC South? Sep 30 $99 +$151 +153%
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? Sep 30 $155 +$132 +85%
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West? Sep 30 $234 +$312 +134%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? Sep 30 $105 +$151 +144%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Sep 30 $363 +$87 +24%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $655 +$1,655 +253%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $60 +$2,314 +3842%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $268 +$1,416 +528%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $560 +$2,193 +391%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $382 +$3,645 +955%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $14 +$2,248 +15868%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $730 +$2,607 +357%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $243 +$1,648 +680%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $543 +$898 +165%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $165 +$5,630 +3421%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $185 +$7,281 +3946%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $150 +$7,242 +4828%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $467 +$6,091 +1305%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $28 +$8,657 +31238%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $165 +$1,364 +828%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $58 +$6 +10%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $242 +$11,409 +4716%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 30 $423 +$11,856 +2806%
Will a Democrat win Kansas Presidential Election? Sep 29 $0 +$43 +121958%
Will a candidate from another party win Maine US Senate Election? Sep 29 $0 $0 +16060%
Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader? Sep 27 $7 +$185 +2640%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$80,003
politics 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64 SELL Yes 6¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ SELL Yes 5¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 SELL Yes 5¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4 SELL Yes 3¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes 7¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 SELL Yes 9¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 SELL Yes 18¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 SELL Yes 7¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 SELL Yes 3¢ $0 612d
Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in the 2024 US President SELL Yes 1¢ $0 612d
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 612d
Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B SELL Trump 56¢ $0 612d
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2024? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 612d
Will a candidate from another party win South Carolina Presidential El SELL Yes 0¢ $0 612d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 SELL Yes 11¢ $0 612d
Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia gen SELL Yes 0¢ $0 612d
Will the Greens win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 612d
Will RFK Jr. debate Biden/Trump? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 612d
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin US Senate Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 612d
Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 612d
4+ Trump vs. Harris debates before election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 612d
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Democratic 46¢ $1 612d
Trump sentenced to house arrest? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 612d
Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election SELL Yes 0¢ $1 612d
Who will raise more in September? SELL Trump 1¢ $1 612d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+642.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.4% -38.8% 14% 14% -90.1%
≤30d 7 -32.4% -38.8% 14% 14% -90.1%
≤90d 7 -32.4% -38.8% 14% 14% -90.1%
all 40 +721.1% +642.9% 82% 80% +40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover318.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +642.9% 80% +40.8%
10% +571.8% 80% +27.3%
15% ← realistic here +506.9% 78% +15.0%
20% +447.4% 75% +3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records