trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +5.3% | -4.7% | 100% | 0% | -4.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +39.5% | +26.2% | 100% | 20% | +9.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +12.2% | +1.5% | 62% | 12% | -18.3% |
| all | 19 | +23.4% | +11.7% | 53% | 16% | -22.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +11.7% | 16% | -22.9% |
| 10% | +1.0% | 16% | -30.3% |
| 15% | -8.8% | 16% | -37.0% |
| 20% | -17.7% | 16% | -43.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 95¢ | $35 | $38 | +$2 (+7%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 82¢ | $30 | $28 | −$2 (-5%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 20¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $7 | +$13 | +178% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 17? | Jun 01 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | Jun 01 | $18 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | Jun 01 | $19 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | May 20 | $1,206 | −$1 | -0% |
| Senators vs. Devils | Apr 12 | $162 | −$162 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Apr 10 | $66 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? | Mar 17 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Mar 11 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| Jets vs. Sharks | Mar 02 | $1,029 | +$1,071 | +104% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Mar 01 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27? | Mar 01 | $7 | +$23 | +335% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 22 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Feb 09 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Feb 09 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 26 | $43 | +$4 | +9% |
| Hawks vs. Grizzlies | Jan 21 | $1,960 | −$1,960 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 21 | $2,005 | −$2 | -0% |