Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x7790…9b1e crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$32
sports 22% +$41
other 20% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.8% -0.7% 62% 50% +4.5%
≤30d 16 +9.8% -0.7% 62% 50% +4.5%
≤90d 16 +9.8% -0.7% 62% 50% +4.5%
all 16 +9.8% -0.7% 62% 50% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 50% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 50% -5.5%
15% -18.9% 38% -14.6%
20% -26.8% 19% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $80 +$41 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$23 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$7 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $88 52m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $29 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $29 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $33 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $33 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records