Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7791…5f8a politics 641 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$201 (-8%) realized −$201 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate54%342W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$180
politics 13% +$3
other 7% −$17
culture 2% −$9
world 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$2
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +328.8% +287.9% 33% 33% +5.1%
≤30d 33 +37.7% +24.6% 36% 27% -24.0%
≤90d 339 +7.5% -2.7% 54% 27% -12.2%
all 630 +0.5% -9.1% 54% 30% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 30% -17.2%
10% -17.8% 24% -25.1%
15% -25.7% 19% -32.3%
20% -33.0% 14% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses342 / 288
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)630 / 641
History coverage126d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 64¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? No 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? Yes 70¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Halle Berry as Storm? No 67¢ 49¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 64¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $1 $0 -27%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +160%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Jonathan Majors as Kang? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +57%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -24%
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be less than 150k? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Air Force Academy Address? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vance say "Epic Fury" during Air Force Academy Address? May 28 $1 $0 +34%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 27 $1 $0 +13%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? May 27 $1 $0 +9%
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bernie say "Restructure" in Maine? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? May 22 $1 $0 +17%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k an May 22 $1 −$1 -87%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $1 +$2 +192%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on May 3, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Drake have exactly 8 songs in the Billboard top 10? May 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will Rayan be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Drake feature Lil Yachty on ICEMAN? May 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN? May 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 4, 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 2, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +42%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Waiter" or "Waitress" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Cookie" or "Potato" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May May 02 $1 +$1 +106%
Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $1 $0 -18%
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $1 +$2 +186%
AWS service disrupted by June 30? May 01 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $0 57m
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 13h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 13h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 13h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 18¢ $0 36h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 15¢ $0 42h
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh SELL No 92¢ $0 46h
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 62¢ $0 2d
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? SELL No $0 6d
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? SELL No $0 6d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? SELL Yes 71¢ $0 6d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 6d
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 60¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 6d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 6d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 6d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 6d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 6d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 6d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 6d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 7d
Jonathan Majors as Kang? SELL No 90¢ $0 8d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 9d
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 64¢ $1 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 11d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.52 · official $9.68 · 2276 history records