Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x7792…273f crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$313 (-5%) realized −$312 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate82%37W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$248
crypto 47% −$564
politics 2% +$2
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 100% 0% -1.4%
≤30d 9 -0.6% -10.0% 78% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 9 -0.6% -10.0% 78% 0% -7.3%
all 45 -5.6% -14.6% 82% 9% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 9% -14.1%
10% -22.7% 7% -22.3%
15% -30.2% 2% -29.8%
20% -37.0% 2% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$99 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$312
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses37 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage151d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +9%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 03 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$2 +7%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 01 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 01 $38 −$1 -2%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? Jun 01 $36 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $36 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 04 $378 −$378 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 04 $100 −$94 -94%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? Mar 04 $561 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 04 $110 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 04 $162 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 04 $149 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 04 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 04 $146 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 04 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 04 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 04 $110 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 04 $110 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 04 $110 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 04 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026? Mar 04 $276 +$2 +1%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 04 $464 +$96 +21%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? Mar 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $100 +$25 +25%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 02 $334 +$5 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $418 +$16 +4%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $406 +$12 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $207 +$199 +96%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 28 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 22 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 6d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 18d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 19d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 19d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 20d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $36 20d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 20d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? SELL No 98¢ $38 20d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? BUY No 96¢ $37 20d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? SELL Yes 98¢ $37 20d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 20d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $38 20d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $36 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $36 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 21d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 21d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $378 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $6 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $100 108d
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? SELL No 99¢ $288 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $101 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.47 · official $38.47 (match) · 106 history records