Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7795…08df crypto 913 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$439 (-5%) realized −$439 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate60%546W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day64.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$130
14 days−$354
30 days−$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$509
sports 10% −$45
weather 9% −$42
other 4% −$8
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$24
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 -9.8% -18.4% 58% 39% -17.1%
≤30d 860 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 31% -15.9%
≤90d 906 -7.9% -16.7% 60% 31% -15.7%
all 906 -7.9% -16.7% 60% 31% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 31% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 23% -23.8%
15% -32.0% 19% -31.1%
20% -38.6% 15% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$439
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses546 / 360
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)906 / 913
History coverage31d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 906 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19? No 60¢ 63¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? No 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 19? No 93¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? No 90¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? No 89¢ 61¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $140 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 93¢ $5 38m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $11 39m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $21 55m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $112 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 61¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 59¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.18 · official $105.18 (match) · 2612 history records