Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7796…8541 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+9%) realized +$120 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate84%21W / 4L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$64
other 39% +$60
crypto 5% −$16
politics 4% +$1
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 33% -7.9%
≤30d 17 +1.5% -8.1% 82% 47% -2.2%
≤90d 25 +6.4% -3.7% 84% 56% +0.4%
all 25 +6.4% -3.7% 84% 56% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 56% +0.4%
10% -12.9% 40% -9.2%
15% -21.3% 12% -17.9%
20% -29.1% 4% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses21 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage41d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 83¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 17 $31 +$1 +4%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $180 +$29 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $46 +$16 +35%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $40 +$11 +28%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $110 +$8 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 58m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 55¢ $21 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $21 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $20 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $32 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 1h
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $140 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $20 5d
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $209 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $25 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $120 20d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $117 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $100 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $30 26d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 46¢ $31 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.23 · official $267.23 (match) · 61 history records