Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7796…4cd5 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,216 (+16%) realized +$2,222 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,261per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,202
7 days+$2,006
14 days+$2,006
30 days+$2,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$1,559
crypto 31% +$441
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.2% +8.8% 100% 78% +4.3%
≤30d 9 +20.2% +8.8% 100% 78% +4.3%
≤90d 9 +20.2% +8.8% 100% 78% +4.3%
all 9 +20.2% +8.8% 100% 78% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 78% +4.3%
10% -1.6% 22% -5.7%
15% -11.2% 11% -14.8%
20% -19.9% 11% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$223 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$694
Realized+$2,222
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1,261
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,028 +$271 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,077 +$597 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $552 +$334 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,255 +$441 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,030 +$330 +16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$7 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$12 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$10 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $61 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $204 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $511 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,014 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,014 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $710 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $3,367 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $552 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,331 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,360 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,823 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,030 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $41 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $71 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $61 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.34 · official $694.34 (match) · 24 history records