Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7797…668b sports 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$316 (-6%) realized −$355 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%129W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$7
14 days+$210
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$33
crypto 18% −$160
other 2% −$98
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +1.6% -8.1% 61% 48% -8.5%
≤30d 67 +4.7% -5.3% 69% 58% -2.3%
≤90d 125 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 54% -10.8%
all 224 -6.2% -15.1% 58% 49% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 49% -15.1%
10% -23.3% 39% -23.2%
15% -30.7% 29% -30.6%
20% -37.5% 25% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses129 / 95
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)224 / 226
History coverage127d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 100¢ $21 $51 +$31 (+150%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Uzbekistan 71¢ 92¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $19 +$2 +8%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 Jun 18 $3 +$17 +550%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $21 +$12 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $188 +$43 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $74 −$73 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $12 +$7 +54%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 Jun 12 $25 +$30 +117%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $28 +$4 +13%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $17 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 11 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $31 +$8 +24%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-8.5) Jun 08 $58 −$58 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 174.5 Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $98 +$16 +16%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $71 +$71 +100%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 07 $26 +$4 +14%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 07 $42 +$4 +9%
Will Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū end in a draw? Jun 07 $29 +$73 +256%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $141 +$47 +33%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $9 +$9 +104%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $180 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +33%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $154 +$47 +31%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $44 +$10 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $17 +$1 +8%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $20 +$2 +11%
Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $26 +$8 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $21 34m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 71¢ $27 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $27 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 74¢ $20 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 92¢ $19 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $6 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 68¢ $13 4h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $21 14h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette SELL Barbora Krejcikova 88¢ $40 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette SELL Barbora Krejcikova 88¢ $19 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette SELL Barbora Krejcikova 83¢ $15 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 69¢ $4 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 69¢ $57 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 83¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.57 · official $86.19 (match) · 522 history records