Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7797…7e0a other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%12W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$2
politics 15% −$1
sports 7% −$29
economics 6% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -4.0% -13.2% 14% 8% -9.9%
all 88 -4.0% -13.2% 14% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 8% -9.9%
10% -21.5% 8% -18.5%
15% -29.1% 8% -26.4%
20% -36.0% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage86d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $176 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $174 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $84 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $311 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $344 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $86 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $85 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 +$4 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 8h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 11h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 39h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $13 11d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 27d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 28d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 29d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 35d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 35d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $87 35d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $87 36d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 36d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.09 · official $80.09 (match) · 240 history records