Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7799…5dcc
politics · 4 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$459 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$387 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$387
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage253d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$480
7 days+$480
14 days+$480
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-83%)
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,988 +$480 +24%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Oct 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 95% +$478
world 4% −$92
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,313 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +12.3%
≤30d 1 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +12.3%
≤90d 1 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +12.3%
all 3 -58.6% -62.6% 33% 33% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.6% 33% +7.3%
10% -66.1% 33% -3.0%
15% -69.4% 0% -12.3%
20% -72.4% 0% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $1.08 (match) · 70 history records