Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x779c…b96f sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$87 (+21%) realized +$89 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$31
other 36% +$68
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +25.3% +13.4% 43% 43% +30.5%
≤30d 7 +25.3% +13.4% 43% 43% +30.5%
≤90d 7 +25.3% +13.4% 43% 43% +30.5%
all 7 +25.3% +13.4% 43% 43% +30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 43% +30.5%
10% +2.5% 43% +18.0%
15% -7.4% 43% +6.6%
20% -16.5% 43% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$26 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 22¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 15¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$59 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$107 +210%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $20 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 15¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $26 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 26h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 26h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 37h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $92 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.02 · official $188.02 (match) · 20 history records