Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x779c…699e weather 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-8%) realized −$82 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$37
other 49% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 33% -52.9%
≤30d 3 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 33% -52.9%
≤90d 3 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 33% -52.9%
all 3 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 33% -52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 33% -52.9%
10% -37.5% 0% -57.4%
15% -43.6% 0% -61.5%
20% -49.1% 0% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$80 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$613
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)3 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? No 82¢ 91¢ $188 $208 +$20 (+11%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? No 87¢ 89¢ $79 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 76¢ $79 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $51 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 78¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 26? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $52 +$10 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $80 −$80 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? Jun 22 $11 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $79 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 6m
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $23 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $8 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 88¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $70 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 82¢ $106 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 41h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $42 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.60 · official $612.60 (match) · 47 history records