Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x77a1…fec1
world · 42 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$419 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$335 · open −$60
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,450
Realized−$335
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage570d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$276
14 days+$462
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 88¢ 78¢ $800 $702 −$98 (-12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 60¢ 66¢ $300 $328 +$28 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 36¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+6%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 72¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 25¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $450 +$122 +27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $508 −$338 -67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $252 +$692 +275%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $920 +$118 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $433 +$68 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $62 −$61 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $305 −$229 -75%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $561 +$163 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $207 −$187 -91%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 76000? May 02 $76 −$76 -100%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? May 02 $130 +$6 +5%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 02 $151 +$16 +10%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? Apr 29 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 27 $50 +$26 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $112 +$18 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 21 $80 +$2 +2%
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? Apr 21 $80 +$32 +40%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $50 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 15 $101 +$25 +25%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $200 +$23 +11%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $186 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 10 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 10 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 10 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 10 $5 +$5 +94%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? Apr 10 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Dec 01 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Dec 01 $281 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 01 $257 +$24 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$86
crypto 12% −$190
sports 10% −$599
other 8% +$329
tech 4% +$27
politics 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 60¢ $300 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $572 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $200 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $95 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $200 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $170 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 72¢ $202 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $600 4d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 93¢ $160 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $450 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 10d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 25¢ $62 14d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 17d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $76 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $310 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 93¢ $700 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 92¢ $285 32d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 33d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $20 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 71¢ $220 38d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $305 39d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $207 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $132 48d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 56¢ $76 48d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? BUY No 95¢ $130 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 81¢ $121 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 80¢ $82 53d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 89¢ $82 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.8% +21.1% 50% 50% +8.2%
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 34 -11.6% -20.0% 56% 41% -11.7%
all 37 -13.0% -21.3% 57% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 38% -14.2%
10% -28.8% 27% -22.5%
15% -35.7% 16% -29.9%
20% -42.0% 11% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,450.22 · official $1,450.22 (match) · 119 history records