trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -91.0% | -91.8% | 6% | 6% | -98.7% |
| all | 22 | -92.6% | -93.3% | 5% | 5% | -98.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -93.3% | 5% | -98.9% |
| 10% | -94.0% | 5% | -99.0% |
| 15% | -94.5% | 5% | -99.1% |
| 20% | -95.1% | 0% | -99.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $31 | $43 | +$11 (+36%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $2 | −$2 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony | Jun 08 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | May 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +45% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? | May 04 | $5 | −$4 | -83% |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? | May 04 | $13 | −$12 | -93% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? | May 04 | $2 | −$2 | -93% |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | May 04 | $99 | −$99 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? | May 02 | $4 | −$4 | -94% |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? | May 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Ohio Revoke Any OSB License Over Event-Contract Activity by March | May 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 25 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 24? | Mar 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? | Mar 23 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? | Mar 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 9? | Mar 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? | Mar 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Mar 12 | $27 | −$27 | -100% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | Mar 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 10? | Mar 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 9? | Mar 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |